Does Trump Own the War in Ukraine?

For eight years President Obama warned the world that arming Ukraine would lead to war. Obama repeatedly resisted overwhelming domestic and international pressure to arm Ukraine with deadly defensive weapons. Just months after taking office President Trump recklessly overturned Obama’s longstanding policy of banning the export of lethal weapons to Ukraine. Today President Trump is seen as a hero in Ukraine for arming and training Ukrainian troops with the deadly Javelin but as Obama predicted giving Ukrainians the ability to defend themselves from Putin made them a target for his aggression and resulted in the invasion.

Prior to President Trump’s election, the United States had NEVER sold or given weapons directly to Ukraine. Congress had approved the sale of lethal aid in 2014 but President Obama steadfastly refused to authorize any large commercial or government sales as part of his de facto ban on the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine.1 By December 2017 Trump reversed Obama’s carefully considered policy and personally approved the export of lethal weapons to Ukraine including the Javelin FGM-148 and M107A1 Sniper System. Three months later, 210 Javelin missiles and 37 launch units arrived in Ukraine accompanied by U.S. military trainers.2 The first of many sales of lethal weapons to Ukraine.

The Trump administration explained that the intent of the weapon sale was to "help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to meet its national defense requirements." This claim was made despite Obama’s clear warning that “longstanding concern that arming Ukraine would provoke Moscow into a further escalation that could drag Washington into a proxy war.”3

President Trump crossed Obama’s ‘redline’ by approving lethal weapon sales prompting one senior congressional official to warn, “We have crossed the Rubicon, this is lethal weapons and I predict more will be coming. It is no mere coincidence that Canada also approved lethal defense sales to Ukraine as well.”4 They were right and additional lethal aid was approved time and time again during Trump’s presidency - almost a billion dollars by 2021.

There was hope that Trump might stop arming Ukraine after President Zelenskyy took office. Almost a week before first speaking to the new president Trump ordered the State Department and Pentagon to put a hold on almost $400 million in military assistance; however, it was soon made clear that the hold did not apply to lethal weapons like the Javelin much to the disappointment of Obama and his former administration. Less than two months after Trump finally spoke to Zelenskyy the hold was lifted allowing Ukraine to receive much-needed helmets, body armor, and night-vision goggles.5

President Trump’s reckless decision to overturn Obama’s longstanding policy prohibiting the transfer of lethal defensive aid to Ukraine resulted in just the sort of conflict the former president predicted would occur if the US armed the former Soviet republic. Trump’s decision to ignore Obama’s policy gave Putin just the excuse he needed to invade.

President Obama repeatedly resisted overwhelming domestic and international pressure to arm Ukraine with deadly defensive aid. Even when President Putin ordered the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade, 31st Air Assault Brigade, and 18th Motor Rifle Brigade to seize Crimea, Obama kept his calm. The image of Russian tanks, helicopters, and soldiers in the streets of Ukraine enraged the international community but President Obama understood that if he gave the Ukraine people the tools to fight back Putin would have just the excuse he needed to take over the entire country. Obama’s restraint avoided a deadly conflict over the peninsula.

When Russian-backed rebels, armed with Russia’s latest weapons, began taking over large parts of Eastern Ukraine President Obama held the line and continued to refuse to arm Ukraine. Instead, he proposed a $53 million non-lethal aid package and promised to help secure a diplomatic solution to the crisis that would allow Ukraine to pursue closer trade and political ties with Europe. The situation was so dire that in the midst of the conflict Ukrainian President Poroshenko traveled to Washington DC to plead for lethal defensive aid. While speaking to a joint session of Congress Poroshenko famously scolded Obama explaining that while he appreciated the non-lethal aid, “Ukraine can’t win the war with blankets.”6

Poroshenko’s plea was so powerful and the need was so great that President Obama’s own party voted with the Republicans to authorize the export of lethal aid to the people of Ukraine.7 But Obama was unmoved. Despite intense pressure from Democrats and our NATO allies Obama made it clear that arming Ukraine would provoke Putin and result in the sort of escalation we are seeing today. Keeping Ukraine weak may have seemed cruel but Obama believed that it was the best way to help the former Soviet republic.

President Obama wasn’t the only one warning the west not to arm Ukraine. Trump’s own National Security Council director for Russia, Fiona Hill, warned that arming Ukraine would cause Russia to preemptively invade pushing all the way to Kyiv. She argued that in Putin’s view the US, EU, and NATO were all engaged in an economic war and a proxy war in Ukraine designed to destroy Russia.8 Much to Hill’s disappointment Trump drastically increased sanctions against Russia issuing more than 50 policy actions against Russia and Putin9 while sending hundreds of millions of dollars in lethal weapons and military trainers to Ukraine. In Hill’s estimation, Trump was begging Putin to invade explaining, “The delivery of lethal U.S. weapons to Ukraine would help Putin make that case. They will be part of the proof he needs.”10

President Obama and Director Hill were right. Trump made Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine easy - the only question was timing. Putin was unsure how Trump might respond to an invasion and worried that the mercurial American president might respond militarily - a risk Putin couldn’t afford to take. Once Biden was in office and after watching the U.S. military crumble in Afghanistan Putin made his move. A move, we all can agree, was 100% of the fault of former President Trump and his reckless decision to reverse Obama’s thoughtful policy of keeping the Ukrainians unarmed and helpless.

Fiona Hill (center left) at a June 27, 2018 meeting with Vladimir Putin