Putin Considers the United States a 'Co-Belligerent' in his Conflict with Ukraine

UPDATE: US intel director believes Putin would only use nuclear weapons if Putin faces an 'existential threat'.

President Vladimir Putin believes that the United States, through rehortic1 and action2, has declared de facto war on the Russian Federation.3 President Biden and Speaker Pelosi have made it impossible for President Vladimir Putin to continue to pretend that he is simply at war with Nazi factions within Ukraine.4 During her surprise visit to Kyiv last week, Speaker Pelosi announced the U.S. would not agree on anything short of total victory over Russia to include the return of the Crimea and Donbas to Ukraine.5 The speaker promised that America would remain in the fight until Russia was defeated. Putin is now on notice that the U.S. has staked its prestige on his total defeat and removal from office. Aware that his conventional forces are no match for American firepower and intelligence Putin’s only option is to use his vast nuclear arsenal to bring Biden and Pelosi to the bargaining table.6

The world is on the brink of a devastating nuclear conflict and yet we’re focused on Amber Heard and Johnny Depp’s toxic marriage and leaks from a liberal Supreme Court law clerk.7 Meanwhile, without any sort of public debate the Biden administration has settled on a strategy of letting the war play out in order to “bleed Russia dry” resulting in regime change in Moscow.8 There are three problems with this strategy:

1. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are paying for our strategy with their lives

2. The war is exacerbating inflation over an almost unthinkable tipping point

3. Putin may feel his only option is to use his nuclear arsenal to force the peace

If the United States was willing to drop its “bleed Russia dry” strategy it could broker a peace that would allow both Ukraine and Putin to declare victory. First, Crimea has been part of Russia for six years - prior to the invasion Ukraine had given up any hope of reversing the annexation - Russia would be allowed to keep it. Second, the Donbas has been contested and fought over for six years - Russia and Ukraine would agree to recognize the independence of the region. Third, Ukraine would agree to remain neutral and not join NATO - Ukraine has already offered this9 and a formal agreement of neutrality would allow Putin to declare victory. This deal would be a win for both parties and would end the six-year conflict in the Donbas. The United States could even obtain secret concessions from Russia as part of the deal.

Sadly, the rhetoric from both the White House and the Speaker of the House makes it clear their objective is regime change in Russia10 ; committing the United States to the conflict until Putin is defeated.

In my opinion the Biden administration has made three fatal mistakes in their execution of the “bleed Russia dry” strategy allowing Putin to consider the United States a co-belligerent in the conflict - arguably giving him the justification to use nuclear weapons in retaliation as he runs out of options. Here are the three mistakes:

Mistake No. 1: Massively Disportionate Aid to Ukraine

Proxy wars are nothing new between the United States and Russia. For example, in the 1980s the United States provided the Afghan resistance with 2,300 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and by 1987 was funneling $630 million in annual military aid to the Mujahideen rebels. While unprecedented, the funding represented only .1% of the Soviet Union’s annual military budget. The scale of U.S. military aid to Ukraine will make it very difficult for Russia to continue to suspend their disbelief and pretend we are not co-belligerents in this conflict.

The United States and its NATO allies are on track to provide Ukraine with almost $50 billion in military aid this year or approximately $137 million per day - an amount that is equal to 77% of Russia’s total military budget.11 Each year Russia collects around $250 billion in revenue from taxes and the sale of fossil fuels - with deficit spending that amounts to about $700 million per day to fund the largest country in the world (by area). Russia’s economy is already on the brink and Putin knows he cannot match our investment in Ukraine and keep his nation running. The sheer scope of lethal aid being provided to Ukraine is on a scale never before witnessed in human history.

The Scope of the Military Aid

The day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine President Biden increased security assistance to Ukraine to over $1 billion and daily cargo flights from Dover Air Force Base began delivering Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, small arms, ammunition, and body armor to Ukraine by way of Poland.12 On March 12th the DoD began ramping up Javelin and Stinger missile shipments. Just days later on March 16th, after Ukraine’s president spoke to a joint session of Congress, Biden ordered the shipment of an additional 700 Switchblade drones, 600 Singer missiles, 2,600 Javelin missiles, 1,000 anti-armor weapons, 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor missiles, 16 Russian Mi-17 helicopters (they were bought for Afghanistan but still in U.S. control), and 70 Humvees.

The next day Biden agreed to replace Slovakia’s S-300 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems with MIM-104 Patriot SAMs if they would send them to Ukraine.13 By March 30th Biden released another $500 million in direct budgetary aid that Ukraine could use to pay troops14 and announced that an additional 2,000 Javelin and 800 Stinger missiles were already on their way to Poland.15 On April 1st the DoD announced it was shipping classified laser-guided rocket systems, additional Switchblade, Puma, and Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems systems.16

The DoD also announced that the Czech Republic and Poland would be sending 70 and 250 (respectively) Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine on the promise the U.S. would replace them with M1 Abrams tanks. On April 21st an additional 72 155mm Howitzers and 144,000 artillery shells were sent to Ukraine as a result of an additional $800 million security grant from the DoD.17 Three days later Secretary of State Blinken declared an emergency need to bypass Congress and send $165 million worth of 152mm rounds for 2A36 Giatsint, 152mm rounds for D-20 cannons, VOG-17 for automatic grenade launcher AGS-17, 120mm mortar rounds (non-NATO), 122mm rounds for 2Sl Gvozdika, BM-21 GRAD Rockets, 300mm rounds/rockets for MLRS "Smerch," VOG-25 grenades for under-barrel grenade launcher GP-25, 82mm mortar rounds, 125mm HE ammunition for T-72, and 152mm rounds for 2A65 Msta.18 Two days after Blinken’s emergency announcement President Biden requested an additional $33 billion for Ukraine-related efforts, including  $5 billion in additional drawdown authority, $6 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and $4 billion for the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing program.19 

Mistake No. 2: Title 50 Covert Action in Ukraine

While observers have noted as a result of its systematic and massive assistance in the form of arms sales and intelligence sharing has made the United States a co-belligerent, the reality is that U.S. involvement goes much deeper.20 According to multiple sources, Biden issued a special presidential finding authorizing covert action under Title 5021 in Ukraine. The White House briefed several members of Congress about the president’s decision to send covert forces into Ukraine receiving overwhelming support. As a result, Congress is not free to discuss the president’s decision - they must keep his decision secret from their colleagues and the American people.

This week the New York Times revealed covert paramilitary units embedded with Ukrainian commanders on the battlefield have been providing classified high-resolution targeting instructions in real-time.22 When authorized these U.S. paramilitary units ‘assist’ Ukrainian soldiers in the use of GPS enabled guidance systems found in U.S.-supplied weapons including classified laser-guided rocket systems, Switchblade, Puma, and Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems allowing Ukraine to kill more than a dozen Russian generals so far. By having these paramilitary units embedded on the battlefield the U.S. is able to deliver and deploy “sensitive” armaments into Ukraine reducing the risk that these deadly arms might fall into Russian hands.

Pentagon officials even authorized paramilitary units to enter the coordinates of Russia’s Black Sea flagship into a Ukrainian Neptune missile battery computers enabling them to skink the Moskva Slava Class Cruiser.23 A massive psychological blow to Putin and the Russian military.

There is little doubt that Putin views the United States as a co-belligerent given the success American paramilitary units have had in targeting and eliminating high-value Russian targets including a dozen generals and the Black Sea flagship. If the war and our covert actions continue we MUST expect Putin to retaliate.24  

It should be noted that the administration has given conflicting statements on the level of assistance we are giving to Ukraine when it comes to targeting and the use of “sensitive” armaments.25 Most recently U.S officials explained that their assistance to Ukraine is “legal, it's lawful, it is legitimate, and it is limited.”

Mistake No. 3: Making it Personal

President Biden and his administration have made a BIG show of seizing homes, bank accounts, jets, and yachts owned by Putin and his allies. In one recent video Biden boasted about the seizures openly laughing at the Russian president. In another press conference, Biden’s press secretary displayed pictures of superyachts that were now “ours” and explained that the seizures were just the beginning of the pain and suffering America would be delivering to Putin and his allies.26

At the end of the day, we’re pushing Putin deeper and deeper into the corner. We should be very concerned that at some point he will feel as though he has nothing left to lose. I would encourage the administration to broker a peace, end this war now, take the win, and move on. Countless Ukrainian lives will be saved and the very real possibility of nuclear war will be avoided entirely. We can then get back to focusing on Johnny Depp and Amber Heard without distraction.